Capstone’s Steve Moffitt tries his hand on what to expect next from the partial government shutdown. Follow him on LinkedIn.
Many, including me, thought over the weekend that a government shutdown would be short-lived, if at all. Most Democrats thought they would be able to get the Republicans to come to an agreement and back down, as casting votes to shut down the government would end up hurting themselves in the next election. So why would the Republicans go through with it, the Dems reasoned, risk getting the public angry, and potentially lose House seats to the Democrats? Unfortunately, the Tea Partiers in the House refused to negotiate with the more moderate Republicans, forcing the vote to defund Obamacare in exchange for a budget.
It is now clear to me, and the rest of us, that this shutdown is going to take some time to sort itself out.
While the shutdown could be resolved quickly (less than a day, if desired), I do not see a quick resolution coming soon, and here’s why.
Because of the timing from of the lengthening government shutdown and the fast approaching (October 17th) need to raise the debt limit, some senior Republicans are suggesting that the resolution to this impasse should not only re-open the government and deal with ObamaCare, but also raise the debt limit.
Don’t bet on that plan working, say Congressional Democrats.
Why? The debt limit is not a debatable issue for them. They say the debt-limit is a result of spending decisions made by both parties in the past and now we must pay our bills.
Democrats also believe there is nothing to negotiate on ObamaCare because it is the law of the land. Like all laws, they say, if changes are wanted, then Republicans need to find the votes to make changes – votes they do not have now, and may not have even after the 2014 Congressional elections – especially if there is an electoral blow-back for shutting down the government.
For these reasons, I see a government shutdown of at least a week to 10 days. Stay tuned.
The views in this blog post represent the viewpoints of individual team members, not Capstone National Partners as a whole.
