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02 Apr 2013

Gay Marriage

The Fix writes, “We won’t know until late June or maybe even early July how the Supreme Court will decide on California’s Proposition 8 or the federal Defense of Marriage Act. And, as we learned with President Obama’s health care law, making predictions based on oral arguments is never a good idea. A Washington Post-ABC News poll came out this week showing support for gay marriage at an all-time high. SHIFTS IN ATTITUDES ON SAME SEX MARRIAGE WSJ/NBC Poll  … the largest shift of any group has come from blue-collar workers. 2014 “…will be the first electoral test of whether Democrats supporting gay marriage can win re-election in red states (e.g. Kay Hagan (D-NC), Mark Begich (D-AK), and Max Baucus (D-MT)). Almost certainly, their calculation is that, win or lose, their fates will rest far more on other issues come next fall, so they may as well follow their consciences (and campaign pocket books) and align themselves with their blue-state brethren.” writes NJ. THIRTY-TWO STATES WOULD SUPPORT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE IN 2016 Perhaps surprisingly, 32 states would be willing to vote in favor of a same-sex marriage ballot initiative in 2016, according to a model devised by FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver. Even more surprisingly, 44 states would be willing to do so by 2020, if public support continues its upward trend. He has a history of being right.

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