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Demographic Reality Will Shape Politics In 2016, Beyond

14 Jan 2013

Demographic Reality Will Shape Politics In 2016, Beyond

According to a new analysis by National Journal, “four-fifths of the House Republicans now represent districts in which the white share of the voting-age population exceeds the national average, while almost two-thirds of House Democrats represent districts in which the minority share of the voting-age population exceeds the national average. The GOP’s strength in these mostly white districts helped sustain its House majority. But the party’s disproportionate reliance on whites also means that few House Republicans have much experience courting nonwhite voters. That dynamic will likely make it tougher for the party to formulate an agenda on issues from immigration to health care, issues that attract the minority support it will need to reclaim the White House going forward.” REDISTRICTING ADVANTAGES COME AND GO FirstRead reports, “Democrats who are upset that redistricting left them unable to gain much ground during the last election should take heed: Their party has benefitted from a similar unfair advantage in the past. Republican pollster Bill McInturff who conducts the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll wrote an analysis showing that “back in 1980 Republicans won 49% of the popular vote for House races but only 44% of the seats. It’s a similar margin the Democrats faced last year, when they won 50.5% of the total popular vote but only 46% of the seats.”

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